J&K at ‘demographic sweet spot’

Srinagar, June 22: J&K has entered a unique phase in its population dynamics popularly known as “demographic sweet spot”.It means that the working-age population is at its historical peak and the dependency ratio of children and the elderly is the lowest. Approximately 70 percent of its population is projected to fall in the 15-59 years age group in 2026.  This is higher than almost all major states and UTs in the country, a unique chance amidst unborn opportunities.The latest Population Projections, Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India figures shows that only 19 percent of J&K's population will be below 15 years of age in 2026.  Here 11 percent of population will be aged 60 years and above, a figure set to grow in near future. The national average stands at 24 percent children, 65 percent working-age population and 11 percent elderly.The figures suggest that J&K has moved well beyond the demographic profile that is traditionally associated with states in northern India. In Bihar, for example, 31 percent population is below the age of 15 and only 61 percent is in the working-age category. In Rajasthan 27 percent is children and 63 percent is working-age population. A graphical representation of the age dynamics was recently posted by dataforindia on its X page. J&K does not stand out merely due to a declining share of children, but also the unusually large concentration of people in their economically productive years. At 70 percent, J&K’s working-age share is projected to exceed that of Punjab, Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh, both with 67 percent working age population. In Telangana it is 68 percent and even the north-eastern states collectively it stands at 69 percent. More importantly, J&K has not yet entered the ageing phase visible in parts of southern Indian states. Kerala is projected to have 19 percent of its population above 60 years of age by 2026.  In Tamil Nadu it is 16 percent elderly residents. J&K’s corresponding figure remains 11 percent.Demographers describe such a population structure as a demographic dividend. This is a period when the proportion of working-age people is significantly higher than dependent age groups. The economic benefits include a larger labour force and increased productivity.However, the dividend is not automatic, and depends heavily on whether the economy is able to generate sufficient employment opportunities for this expanded workforce. J&K’s employment remains one of the most pressing public concerns. With one of the country's most favourable age structures, the place continues to grapple with the challenge of absorbing a large number of educated young people into jobs.  Whether the demographic window paves way for economic growth or a missed opportunity may depend on how effectively the large working-age population is provided employment and enterprise.